Selection of Capital
for Andhra Pradesh as an Operations Research Problem.
From the state of Andhra Pradesh in Indian Union, on June 2nd,
the appointed day, the state of Telangana is going to be demerged and shall
become the 29th state of the Indian union, with Hyderabad as its
capital city, leaving the residual/successor of Andhra Pradesh bereft of a
capital.
Provision is made to make Hyderabad a joint capital for a
period not exceeding ten years, to enable the residual/successor state of
Andhra Pradesh to develop a capital.
This arrangement, with no revenue share from
the joint capital region, in a way is an affront to the people of the
residual/successor state of Andhra Pradesh, as it implies that the present
existing extent of the residual/successor state of Andhra Pradesh is barren
enough to have at least a temporary capital to conduct its affairs.
For a
resident of the residual/successor state of Andhra Pradesh, having capital at
Hyderabad is equivalent to having their capital in Bangalore or Delhi, as
Hyderabad is not within its geographical boundaries. An equitable solution would have been
devolvement of Hyderabad value on both the regions post partition, as per
percentage of population, as Hyderabad, more so the Cyberabad region is
entirely state creation.
As it may be so, the central government of India, has
promised to constitute a committee for identification of a new capital region
(NCR) for the residual/successor state of Andhra Pradesh (henceforth referred
to as Andhra Pradesh), probably in consultation with the government of Andhra
Pradesh, and finance the development of the necessary infrastructure (Assembly
and Secretariat?.), in the identified region.
The problem now posed is where to locate the NCR, implying
what are the criteria for zeroing in on the NCR in the state.
The attempt here is to solve this problem using Operations
Research (Operations Research is a science that poses a problem in a
mathematical form, maximizing/minimizing the objective given a constraint
set).
Apart from the obvious constraints
like, locating it within the geographical boundaries of the state Andhra
Pradesh, the first step is to identify the objective function. As the central government is shouldering the
cost of infrastructure development, minimization of cost is not yet an
objective for the problem of selecting the NCR of Andhra Pradesh.
One way of posing it as a minimization project would be apt
when every probable location is expensive, in terms of resources, environment,
and inhabitants of every identified location (as in the case of a nuclear power
plant), are against its location in their midst, and one has to choose one as
the best of the least preferred.
In this instance, the problem is the opposite. As it is generally seen as a very positive,
value enhancing project, every region, which is a potential candidate, is
competing with other potentials for its location in its region. Having gauged the mood, conceding defeat of
the policy makers in finding an acceptable NCR to all the stakeholders, one
argument that has been floated is to decentralize and develop sub regional
developmental plans, in tune with the supposed strength of the sub region.
The above argument is flawed as it concedes defeat of the
policy makers even before any exercise to identify the NCR of Andhra Pradesh
has begun. It also fails to understand
that the present attempt is to identify the NCR (may be to be developed as a
model urban centre), which shall merely be the administrative site of the state
of Andhra Pradesh, and to which extent only the central assistance is being
promised.
As such, identifying of the constraints apart from the
obvious ones is futile unless the objective function or objective is defined,
that is the objective whose value is to be maximized.
Various objectives leap to attention. If accessibility (travel time) is the
criteria, then it can be modelled as the minimum (maximum would be negative of
this function) weighted average (weight being the population of any point whose
distance to the probable NCR is being calculated) distance.
The entire problem would be modelled as a
weighted shortest path problem.
If maximum land availability is the objective, as there
would be an upper bound on the need for vacant land, it would narrow down the
probable regions for consideration, but it would not help in giving us one
solution.
If salubrious environment is the consideration, then it
would give a solution that would give a government removed from the citizens,
which is not acceptable in a democracy.
If increase in the economic activity is the objective, it
will provide a solution that would create disproportionate wealth concentration
in the region surrounding the NCR.
One might formulate an objective function which is a utility
function combining all of the above with appropriate weights. However the weights in the utility function
are subjective and it might not be possible to arrive at an objective utility
function.
Going beyond what was discussed above, if one defines the
essence of the NCR creation, it is a creation of an urban centre, where in the
state legislative assembly and the administrative secretariat can be housed,
with the attendant housing. Now that an
opportunity (demerger of Telangana, and the attendant central governments
technical and financial support in developing the NCR), has presented itself,
the essence of NCR is a new urban centre.
One has to identify the citizens of Andhra Pradesh as the
primary stakeholders of the state. As
long as it is placed within the geographical boundaries of the state of Andhra
Pradesh, an objective that devolves the value of this urban centre on all the
stake holders equitably would be an objective that would be in concurrence with
all the stake holders. An objective that
maximizes the tax collections would devolve the revenues (value) of the NCR to
all the citizens/stakeholders of Andhra Pradesh.
The haze surrounding the objective vanishes, when one
defines
Objective of location
of the NCR is to maximize the wealth of the state of Andhra Pradesh.
The wealth of the NCR is derived from the future tax
revenues of NCR. Creation of necessary
infrastructure (physical as well as legislative) necessarily makes the land
brought under NCR influence, appreciate in value. State share of this appreciation is reflected
in increased stamp duty collections and capital gain taxes to the union
government.
However, since the NCR is
visualized as a green field urban project, the maximum wealth will accrue to
the state of Andhra Pradesh, when land is auctioned, after the creation of the
necessary infrastructure or on releasing the road map of the upcoming
infrastructural support.
However, maximization of wealth to the state of Andhra
Pradesh happens when and only when there is a land bank that can be auctioned
at a later date. It would unlock the
value of the NCR to the state of Andhra Pradesh, as and when needed or on a
predetermined staggered timeline.
Having stated as above, the criteria/constraint for the
selection of the NCR, would include the region which would provide the
government with maximum land bank, within the existing land acquisition and
other legal constraints, and its location and legislative support should be to
afford good future demand, to afford good appreciation for the land bank held
by the state of Andhra Pradesh in the NCR.
One can now develop mathematical models to pinpoint the best
region for the location of the NCR, which would maximize the wealth of the
state of Andhra Pradesh.
In conclusion, recognition of maximizing the wealth of the
state of Andhra Pradesh as the objective of the NCR and land bank creation as a
viable model for distribution of this wealth equitably among all the
stakeholders of Andhra Pradesh state, would provide one solution that should be
acceptable to all stakeholders of Andhra Pradesh.
No mathematical model has been presented, but trying to pose
this as an Operations Research problem, leads one to analyse the problem
objectively and gives insights and clarity on the purpose of NCR.
